According to the study, heat-attributable deaths in Spain currently total about 1,300 per year and would rise to about 13,000 per year in the 2051-2100 period under a no-adaptation scenario with the RCP8.5 emissions pathway.
Notes on verification
Figures confirmed by peer-reviewed study (Díaz et al. 2019, Environmental Research) with precise values (1,414 and 12,896 deaths/year) matching rounded public communication figures (1,300 and 13,000). Multiple independent sources corroborate, though all trace back to one underlying study.
Sources
- Un estudio cifra en cerca de 50.000 millones de euros anuales el coste que tendría para España la no adaptación al calor - ISCIII Portal Web (isciii.es)
- https://www.elagoradiario.com/economia-circular/no-adaptarse-olas-calor-costara-50-000-millones-espana/ (elagoradiario.com)
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935119301215 (sciencedirect.com)
- https://researchgate.net/publication/331374059_Mortality_attributable_to_high_temperatures_over_the_2021-2050_and_2051-2100_time_horizons_in_Spain_Adaptation_and_economic_estimate (researchgate.net)