The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers an AMOC shutdown during this century unlikely.
Notes on verification
Directly confirmed by IPCC AR6 Working Group I Chapter 9 and Summary for Policymakers text, corroborated by multiple independent peer-reviewed sources. Ongoing scientific debate exists about whether this assessment is too conservative, but the claim accurately reflects the IPCC's official stated position.
Sources
- Is the Atlantic Ocean's great conveyer belt really slowing ... (nationalgeographic.com)
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w (nature.com)
- https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/ (ipcc.ch)
- https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/10/high-resolution-fingerprint-images-reveal-a-weakening-atlantic-ocean-circulation-amoc/ (realclimate.org)