The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers an AMOC shutdown during this century unlikely.
Notes on verification
Directly confirmed by IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 9 text stating medium confidence in no abrupt AMOC collapse before 2100, corroborated by Carbon Brief and academic sources. Note IPCC confidence is 'medium,' not high, and newer research suggests this may be revised in AR7.
Sources
- Is the Atlantic Ocean's great conveyer belt really slowing ... (nationalgeographic.com)
- https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/ (ipcc.ch)
- https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.html (interactive.carbonbrief.org)
- https://climate.sun.ac.za/uncategorized/amoc-shut-down-by-2100-should-important-new-results-be-used-to-update-an-approved-ipcc-consensus-on-risk/ (climate.sun.ac.za)